Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Taylor Ward

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETKeider Montero
Sample2886.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.7
F 15.5
V 14.8
Model 20.1% Market 17.2% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.3% Market 74.4% Gap +13.5pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.6% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
24 -50 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
67
Hard-hit%39.3%
51 -22 vs proj
xBA0.337
67
xSLG0.506
48
xwOBA0.348
84
BB%16.9%
99 +32 vs proj
Bat speed66.4
14
K%20.2%
63 +27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
34
Arm Strength92.3 · LF
46
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-0.6 · LF
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.0 · LF
1
SB Success Rate40.0% · LF
1
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
51
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.8%
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5%
11
Correct Decisions68.5%
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)