Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Taylor Ward

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETTarik Skubal
Sample2892.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.9
F 14.9
V 16.1
Model 18.9% Market 17.8% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.0% Market 75.0% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -300 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.2% Market -- Gap +7.8pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
27 -48 vs proj
Exit velocity89.3
66
Hard-hit%38.7%
49 -24 vs proj
xBA0.335
66
xSLG0.505
49
xwOBA0.348
85
BB%17.0%
99 +32 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
14
K%20.0%
65 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
34
Arm Strength92.3 · LF
45
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
21
Range Runs-0.6 · LF
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.0 · LF
1
SB Success Rate40.0% · LF
1
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
51
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.8%
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.2%
10
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.273 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherTarik Skubal
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)