Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETKeider Montero
Sample4160.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 15.6
Model 20.7% Market 23.0% Gap -2.2pp
BetMGM 335 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.4% Market 77.3% Gap +14.3pp
BetMGM -340 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.5% Market -- Gap +9.9pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
86
Exit velocity94.1
98
Hard-hit%55.4%
98
xBA0.384
94
xSLG0.715
95
xwOBA0.378
97
BB%11.7%
82 +23 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
88
K%24.6%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
84
Range Runs2.9 · 1B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7%
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
63
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)