Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETTarik Skubal
Sample4167.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 12.2
V 16.0
Model 19.6% Market 23.8% Gap -4.3pp
BetMGM 320 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.6% Market 78.7% Gap +14.9pp
BetMGM -370 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.0% Market -- Gap +7.3pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
86
Exit velocity94.2
98
Hard-hit%55.9%
98
xBA0.382
94
xSLG0.717
95
xwOBA0.378
96
BB%11.6%
82 +24 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
89
K%24.3%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs3.4 · 1B
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
65
Correct Decisions68.7%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherTarik Skubal
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)