Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-05-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-21

Jorge Soler

LAA · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs ATHLuis Severino
Sample3971.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.6
F 13.4
V 17.6
Model 16.9% Market 16.8% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
70
Exit velocity88.5
47
Hard-hit%43.4%
62
xBA0.335
59
xSLG0.614
76
xwOBA0.305
42 -15 vs proj
BB%9.6%
58
Bat speed73.0
90
K%33.5%
4 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · RF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.4 · RF
27 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.8 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · DH
17
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6%
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0%
53
Correct Decisions69.0%
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
71

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.058
Opposing pitcherLuis Severino
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)