Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-05-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
52
Matched
156
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-05-21 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
14.5%Palantir 13.5%market +1.1pp
P 14.5
F 15.7
V 13.2
2.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
10.9%Palantir 12.2%market -1.3pp
P 10.9
F 17.2
V 13.5
6.3pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
03 IL10
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 3
12.1%Palantir 13.6%market -1.5pp
P 12.1
F 15.7
V 13.0
3.6pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
12.3%Palantir 14.1%market -1.8pp
P 12.3
F 14.2
V 16.5
4.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 6
10.0%Palantir 11.8%market -1.9pp
P 10.0
F 14.2
V 11.8
4.2pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
15.8%Palantir 18.4%market -2.5pp
P 15.8
F 17.9
V 16.9
2.1pp 0.997xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
14.7%Palantir 17.5%market -2.9pp
P 14.7
F 17.9
V 16.9
3.2pp 0.997xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 6
7.9%Palantir 11.1%market -3.2pp
P 7.9
F 4.7
V 13.3
8.6pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
09 IL10
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7
7.1%Palantir 10.4%market -3.3pp
P 7.1
F 9.1
V 10.4
3.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 860 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 5
10.3%Palantir 14.1%market -3.7pp
P 10.3
F 13.6
V 14.7
4.4pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
11 OUT
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 4
10.2%Palantir 14.7%market -4.5pp
P 10.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
4.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
8.6%Palantir 13.3%market -4.7pp
P 8.6
F 14.2
V 13.7
5.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 7
4.0%Palantir 9.0%market -4.9pp
P 4.0
F 11.4
V 11.8
7.8pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1015 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
5.4%Palantir 10.4%market -5.0pp
P 5.4
F 13.4
V 12.5
8.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 865 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
8.0%Palantir 13.5%market -5.5pp
P 8.0
F 13.4
V 15.4
7.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
16 Lineup pending
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 6
7.4%Palantir 13.3%market -5.9pp
P 7.4
F 17.2
V 12.8
9.8pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 2
3.5%Palantir 10.6%market -7.1pp
P 3.5
F 14.2
V 11.1
10.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 845 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
19.0%Palantir 13.6%market +5.4pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 14.4
4.7pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
13.7%Palantir 14.7%market -1.0pp
P 13.7
F 17.2
V 13.4
3.8pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
20
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 1
12.3%Palantir 13.9%market -1.6pp
P 12.3
F 15.7
V 17.8
5.5pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 2
14.3%Palantir 16.7%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 17.2
V 19.9
5.5pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
22
Bo Naylor CLE
OUT
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 4
11.5%Palantir 13.9%market -2.3pp
P 11.5
F 14.2
V 14.0
2.7pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
23
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 1
13.9%Palantir 17.1%market -3.2pp
P 13.9
F 17.9
V 15.2
4.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
12.3%Palantir 15.6%market -3.4pp
P 12.3
F 17.2
V 13.0
4.9pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 2
15.6%Palantir 19.2%market -3.6pp
P 15.6
F 17.9
V 15.8
2.3pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
26 IL10
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
13.2%Palantir 17.1%market -3.8pp
P 13.2
F 17.2
V 16.7
4.0pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
27
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 4
15.8%Palantir 19.6%market -3.9pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.1
1.5pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
9.8%Palantir 13.8%market -4.0pp
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 15.8
6.0pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
15.1%Palantir 19.4%market -4.3pp
P 15.1
F 17.9
V 15.6
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
13.0%Palantir 17.7%market -4.7pp
P 13.0
F 15.7
V 16.0
3.0pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
31 IL10
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
14.7%Palantir 19.4%market -4.8pp
P 14.7
F 14.2
V 16.9
2.7pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 3
12.6%Palantir 17.5%market -5.0pp
P 12.6
F 14.2
V 16.3
3.7pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 2
4.0%Palantir 9.2%market -5.2pp
P 4.0
F 10.3
V 12.5
8.5pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 990 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 1
14.9%Palantir 20.4%market -5.5pp
P 14.9
F 15.5
V 17.2
2.3pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 4
14.9%Palantir 20.4%market -5.5pp
P 14.9
F 14.2
V 14.9
0.7pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
36 IL10
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
10.4%Palantir 16.0%market -5.6pp
P 10.4
F 17.2
V 14.8
6.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 5
10.4%Palantir 16.0%market -5.6pp
P 10.4
F 14.2
V 16.0
5.6pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 5
4.3%Palantir 10.1%market -5.8pp
P 4.3
F 11.4
V 14.9
10.6pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 890 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 1
1.8%Palantir 8.0%market -6.2pp
P 1.8
F 9.1
V 12.0
10.2pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 1
1.6%Palantir 8.0%market -6.4pp
P 1.6
F 4.7
V 12.3
10.7pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
12.3%Palantir 19.4%market -7.1pp
P 12.3
F 15.5
V 17.4
5.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
42 IL10
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
1.9%Palantir 9.2%market -7.3pp
P 1.9
F 0.0
V 9.4
9.4pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
10.1%Palantir 17.4%market -7.3pp
P 10.1
F 15.5
V 16.6
6.5pp 0.862xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
9.5%Palantir 17.0%market -7.4pp
P 9.5
F 13.6
V 17.0
7.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
14.2%Palantir 21.7%market -7.6pp
P 14.2
F 15.5
V 16.3
2.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 3
2.9%Palantir 11.0%market -8.1pp
P 2.9
F 4.7
V 16.0
13.0pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
47
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
14.6%Palantir 24.1%market -9.5pp
P 14.6
F 17.9
V 19.1
4.5pp 0.905xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
10.8%Palantir 21.5%market -10.8pp
P 10.8
F 14.2
V 14.1
3.5pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
10.0%Palantir 20.8%market -10.8pp
P 10.0
F 13.6
V 13.9
3.9pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 2
9.4%Palantir 21.1%market -11.7pp
P 9.4
F 13.4
V 14.3
4.9pp 0.875xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 3
5.6%Palantir 17.2%market -11.7pp
P 5.6
F 13.4
V 17.6
12.0pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
10.5%Palantir 27.0%market -16.5pp
P 10.5
F 11.1
V 14.7
4.2pp 0.971xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1592roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.