Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-05-21 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Lineups not posted
The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6 |
14.5%Palantir | 13.5%market | +1.1pp |
P
14.5
F
15.7
V
13.2
|
2.5pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3 |
10.9%Palantir | 12.2%market | -1.3pp |
P
10.9
F
17.2
V
13.5
|
6.3pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 720 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
IL10
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 3 |
12.1%Palantir | 13.6%market | -1.5pp |
P
12.1
F
15.7
V
13.0
|
3.6pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 635 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5 |
12.3%Palantir | 14.1%market | -1.8pp |
P
12.3
F
14.2
V
16.5
|
4.1pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 6 |
10.0%Palantir | 11.8%market | -1.9pp |
P
10.0
F
14.2
V
11.8
|
4.2pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 745 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
George Springer
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1 |
15.8%Palantir | 18.4%market | -2.5pp |
P
15.8
F
17.9
V
16.9
|
2.1pp | 0.997xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 445 avg 3 books |
| 07 | Lineup pending | TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2 |
14.7%Palantir | 17.5%market | -2.9pp |
P
14.7
F
17.9
V
16.9
|
3.2pp | 0.997xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 470 avg 3 books |
| 08 | Lineup pending | CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 6 |
7.9%Palantir | 11.1%market | -3.2pp |
P
7.9
F
4.7
V
13.3
|
8.6pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 800 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Jordan Beck
COL
IL10
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7 |
7.1%Palantir | 10.4%market | -3.3pp |
P
7.1
F
9.1
V
10.4
|
3.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 860 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 5 |
10.3%Palantir | 14.1%market | -3.7pp |
P
10.3
F
13.6
V
14.7
|
4.4pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
OUT
|
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 4 |
10.2%Palantir | 14.7%market | -4.5pp |
P
10.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
4.0pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 580 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5 |
8.6%Palantir | 13.3%market | -4.7pp |
P
8.6
F
14.2
V
13.7
|
5.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 7 |
4.0%Palantir | 9.0%market | -4.9pp |
P
4.0
F
11.4
V
11.8
|
7.8pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1015 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1 |
5.4%Palantir | 10.4%market | -5.0pp |
P
5.4
F
13.4
V
12.5
|
8.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 865 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4 |
8.0%Palantir | 13.5%market | -5.5pp |
P
8.0
F
13.4
V
15.4
|
7.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 640 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Yoán Moncada
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 6 |
7.4%Palantir | 13.3%market | -5.9pp |
P
7.4
F
17.2
V
12.8
|
9.8pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 2 |
3.5%Palantir | 10.6%market | -7.1pp |
P
3.5
F
14.2
V
11.1
|
10.8pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 845 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Jahmai Jones
DET
Lineup pending
|
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2 |
19.0%Palantir | 13.6%market | +5.4pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
14.4
|
4.7pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5 |
13.7%Palantir | 14.7%market | -1.0pp |
P
13.7
F
17.2
V
13.4
|
3.8pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 580 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 1 |
12.3%Palantir | 13.9%market | -1.6pp |
P
12.3
F
15.7
V
17.8
|
5.5pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 620 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
James Wood
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 2 |
14.3%Palantir | 16.7%market | -2.3pp |
P
14.3
F
17.2
V
19.9
|
5.5pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 500 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Bo Naylor
CLE
OUT
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 4 |
11.5%Palantir | 13.9%market | -2.3pp |
P
11.5
F
14.2
V
14.0
|
2.7pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 620 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 1 |
13.9%Palantir | 17.1%market | -3.2pp |
P
13.9
F
17.9
V
15.2
|
4.0pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 485 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4 |
12.3%Palantir | 15.6%market | -3.4pp |
P
12.3
F
17.2
V
13.0
|
4.9pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 540 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 2 |
15.6%Palantir | 19.2%market | -3.6pp |
P
15.6
F
17.9
V
15.8
|
2.3pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
IL10
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4 |
13.2%Palantir | 17.1%market | -3.8pp |
P
13.2
F
17.2
V
16.7
|
4.0pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 485 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 4 |
15.8%Palantir | 19.6%market | -3.9pp |
P
15.8
F
17.2
V
17.1
|
1.5pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 410 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5 |
9.8%Palantir | 13.8%market | -4.0pp |
P
9.8
F
11.1
V
15.8
|
6.0pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 625 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2 |
15.1%Palantir | 19.4%market | -4.3pp |
P
15.1
F
17.9
V
15.6
|
2.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 30 | Lineup pending | DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5 |
13.0%Palantir | 17.7%market | -4.7pp |
P
13.0
F
15.7
V
16.0
|
3.0pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IL10
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2 |
14.7%Palantir | 19.4%market | -4.8pp |
P
14.7
F
14.2
V
16.9
|
2.7pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Kyle Manzardo
CLE
Lineup pending
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 3 |
12.6%Palantir | 17.5%market | -5.0pp |
P
12.6
F
14.2
V
16.3
|
3.7pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 470 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Steven Kwan
CLE
Lineup pending
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 2 |
4.0%Palantir | 9.2%market | -5.2pp |
P
4.0
F
10.3
V
12.5
|
8.5pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 990 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
José Ramírez
CLE
Lineup pending
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 1 |
14.9%Palantir | 20.4%market | -5.5pp |
P
14.9
F
15.5
V
17.2
|
2.3pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 390 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 4 |
14.9%Palantir | 20.4%market | -5.5pp |
P
14.9
F
14.2
V
14.9
|
0.7pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 390 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IL10
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
10.4%Palantir | 16.0%market | -5.6pp |
P
10.4
F
17.2
V
14.8
|
6.8pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 5 |
10.4%Palantir | 16.0%market | -5.6pp |
P
10.4
F
14.2
V
16.0
|
5.6pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 5 |
4.3%Palantir | 10.1%market | -5.8pp |
P
4.3
F
11.4
V
14.9
|
10.6pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 890 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 1 |
1.8%Palantir | 8.0%market | -6.2pp |
P
1.8
F
9.1
V
12.0
|
10.2pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 1 |
1.6%Palantir | 8.0%market | -6.4pp |
P
1.6
F
4.7
V
12.3
|
10.7pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
12.3%Palantir | 19.4%market | -7.1pp |
P
12.3
F
15.5
V
17.4
|
5.1pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
IL10
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6 |
1.9%Palantir | 9.2%market | -7.3pp |
P
1.9
F
0.0
V
9.4
|
9.4pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 985 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Riley Greene
DET
Lineup pending
|
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4 |
10.1%Palantir | 17.4%market | -7.3pp |
P
10.1
F
15.5
V
16.6
|
6.5pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 475 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Austin Riley
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4 |
9.5%Palantir | 17.0%market | -7.4pp |
P
9.5
F
13.6
V
17.0
|
7.5pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Matt Olson
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2 |
14.2%Palantir | 21.7%market | -7.6pp |
P
14.2
F
15.5
V
16.3
|
2.1pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 360 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 3 |
2.9%Palantir | 11.0%market | -8.1pp |
P
2.9
F
4.7
V
16.0
|
13.0pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 810 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Juan Soto
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
14.6%Palantir | 24.1%market | -9.5pp |
P
14.6
F
17.9
V
19.1
|
4.5pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 315 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Brent Rooker
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2 |
10.8%Palantir | 21.5%market | -10.8pp |
P
10.8
F
14.2
V
14.1
|
3.5pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 365 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Shea Langeliers
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3 |
10.0%Palantir | 20.8%market | -10.8pp |
P
10.0
F
13.6
V
13.9
|
3.9pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 2 |
9.4%Palantir | 21.1%market | -11.7pp |
P
9.4
F
13.4
V
14.3
|
4.9pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 3 |
5.6%Palantir | 17.2%market | -11.7pp |
P
5.6
F
13.4
V
17.6
|
12.0pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 480 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Nick Kurtz
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1 |
10.5%Palantir | 27.0%market | -16.5pp |
P
10.5
F
11.1
V
14.7
|
4.2pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 270 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus1592roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.