Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-10-15 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-10-15

Jake Bauers

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs LADTyler Glasnow
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.039, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.034, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.089, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 50.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.6% Market 61.5% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -160 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
89 +24 vs proj
Exit velocity92.3
95
Hard-hit%53.0%
97 +20 vs proj
xBA0.378
96
xSLG0.697
95
xwOBA0.369
97 +41 vs proj
BB%16.3%
99 +24 vs proj
Bat speed74.3
96
K%27.3%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · 1B
5
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
86
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
10
Range Runs-5.8 · 1B
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.1 · 1B
79
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
20
Sprint Speed26.9 · 1B
35

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherTyler Glasnow
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-10-15
Palantir 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16722 props Brier 0.115 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10880 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 866 props Brier 0.169 ECE 0.039 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)