Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-06-05 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-05

Cody Bellinger

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample4450.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 19.9% Market 16.9% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.0% Market 80.4% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
59 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
62
Hard-hit%38.6%
45 +19 vs proj
xBA0.343
69
xSLG0.549
61
xwOBA0.379
93 +39 vs proj
BB%13.6%
91 +49 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
38
K%12.5%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · LF
88
Arm Strength97.8 · LF
89
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
90
Range Runs2.4 · LF
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · LF
24
SB Success Rate40.0% · LF
2
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
58
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
53
Correct Decisions68.3%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.289 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)