Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Cody Bellinger

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 13.6
Model 20.7% Market 16.9% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.1% Market 84.2% Gap +17.9pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 32.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.1% Market -- Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
40
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%36.5%
41
xBA0.336
71
xSLG0.504
53
xwOBA0.340
85 +23 vs proj
BB%10.8%
78 +32 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
K%15.8%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.8 · LF
96
Arm Strength99.7 · LF
90
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs6.1 · LF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · LF
32
SB Success Rate45.5% · LF
3
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
49

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.289 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)