Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Tyler O'Neill

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETKeider Montero
Sample2231.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.1
F 14.9
V 13.7
Model 17.5% Market 17.1% Gap -0.2pp
DraftKings 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.6% Market 67.7% Gap +11.8pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
56 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
71
Hard-hit%43.2%
69
xBA0.303
28
xSLG0.556
66
xwOBA0.297
41 -27 vs proj
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed71.0
72
K%28.1%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · RF
73
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF
6
Range Runs-2.5 · RF
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
67
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.275 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.016
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)