Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs NYYMax Fried
Sample4536.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.2
F 13.4
V 8.0
Model 15.9% Market 11.7% Gap +3.8pp
DraftKings 725 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 52.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.9% Market 63.0% Gap +10.5pp
BetMGM -170 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.8% Market -- Gap +4.7pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
75 +38 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
52
Hard-hit%46.6%
83 +59 vs proj
xBA0.347
77
xSLG0.579
73
xwOBA0.321
66 +15 vs proj
BB%8.4%
49
Bat speed67.9
26
K%24.6%
39 -41 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.4 · LF
31 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.8 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · DH
29
Sprint Speed26.5 · DH
27
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
89
Correct Decisions67.7%
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.250
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.274 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)