Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-30

Ozzie Albies

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs WSHJake Irvin
Sample4511.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 15.9
Model 20.4% Market 13.5% Gap +6.4pp
DraftKings 615 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.3% Market 79.2% Gap +14.4pp
BetMGM -380 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.5% Market -- Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
25 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
34
Hard-hit%28.7%
12 -15 vs proj
xBA0.283
14
xSLG0.437
26
xwOBA0.286
29 -33 vs proj
BB%6.7%
29
Bat speed67.1
20
K%14.8%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
69
Arm Strength89.5 · 2B
73
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
69
Range Runs0.3 · 2B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 2B
30
Sprint Speed27.0 · 2B
40
SB Success Rate0.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.6%
96
Correct Decisions67.3%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.287 to 0.360
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherJake Irvin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)