Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-01

Rafael Devers

SF · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample4929.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 15.1
Model 18.9% Market 20.8% Gap -1.9pp
BetMGM 380 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.6% Market 76.5% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 19.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.9% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
82
Exit velocity92.7
96
Hard-hit%50.7%
95
xBA0.328
61
xSLG0.641
87
xwOBA0.332
80 -15 vs proj
BB%10.3%
71 -16 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
67
K%25.5%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
46
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-1.4 · 1B
37
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
39
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
19
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
42
Correct Decisions65.8%
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.395 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)