Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-04

Josh Naylor

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs TORShane Bieber
Sample2913.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 14.9
V 15.8
Model 16.9% Market 16.4% Gap -0.1pp
DraftKings 490 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.1% Market 81.8% Gap +14.1pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.9% Market -- Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
32
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%36.8%
40
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.475
39
xwOBA0.325
66
BB%7.4%
34
Bat speed68.2
30
K%13.1%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
17
Range Runs-1.3 · 1B
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate91.7% · 1B
83
Sprint Speed24.6 · 1B
3
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
69
Correct Decisions63.1%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.366
RegressionPositive · 0.000
Opposing pitcherShane Bieber
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)