Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Luis Arraez

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SDRobbie Ray
Sample3795.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.6
F 9.7
V 9.7
Model 6.7% Market 7.7% Gap -1.3pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 49.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.6% Market 79.2% Gap +16.0pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 30.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.4% Market -- Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity85.7
25
Hard-hit%19.1%
2
xBA0.304
34
xSLG0.399
14
xwOBA0.307
55 -24 vs proj
BB%4.8%
13
Bat speed61.5
1
K%4.3%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
83
Arm Strength88.4 · 2B
60
Outs Above Avg13.0 · 2B
98
Range Runs9.9 · 2B
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · 2B
74
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
94
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
32
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.3%
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
19
Correct Decisions65.5%
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.044
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)