Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-08-27 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-27

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs WSHJake Irvin
Sample2733.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.9
F 12.1
V 10.5
Model 18.9% Market 9.8% Gap +8.7pp
DraftKings 885 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.2% Market 70.2% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -235 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.1% Market -- Gap +4.7pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
60 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
40
Hard-hit%41.4%
63 +20 vs proj
xBA0.335
69
xSLG0.563
70
xwOBA0.310
55 -20 vs proj
BB%8.6%
52
Bat speed70.9
72
K%26.7%
29 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
57
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
88
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
72
Range Runs-4.0 · 2B
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · 2B
61
Bolts1.0 · 2B
12
SB Success Rate90.0% · 2B
80
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.356 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.046
Opposing pitcherJake Irvin
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)