Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IL10 · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs NYYMax Fried
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.3
F 11.7
V 9.2
Model 14.1% Market 9.9% Gap +3.8pp
DraftKings 875 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.6% Market 67.7% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56
Exit velocity86.9
40
Hard-hit%40.6%
60 +15 vs proj
xBA0.339
73
xSLG0.559
68
xwOBA0.309
56 -20 vs proj
BB%8.4%
51
Bat speed70.9
71
K%26.9%
30 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
59
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
88
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
72
Range Runs-5.0 · 2B
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
54
Bolts1.0 · 2B
12
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
59
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
69

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.041
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)