Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Yandy Díaz

TB · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver
Sample3843.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 15.3
V 12.7
Model 19.4% Market 14.2% Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 575 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.3% Market 83.3% Gap +17.6pp
BetMGM -500 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64
Exit velocity91.2
89
Hard-hit%49.1%
92
xBA0.345
76
xSLG0.542
63
xwOBA0.358
94
BB%8.4%
50
Bat speed72.1
80
K%14.0%
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.8 · DH
14
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
41
Correct Decisions67.5%
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.325 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.041
Opposing pitcherAj Smith-Shawver
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)