Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Yandy Díaz

TB · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 12 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.1
F 16.1
V 12.4
Model 22.6% Market 14.8% Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 84.2% Market 85.3% Gap +18.4pp
BetMGM -580 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64
Exit velocity91.3
89
Hard-hit%49.2%
92
xBA0.344
77
xSLG0.540
62
xwOBA0.356
93
BB%8.3%
49
Bat speed72.1
80
K%14.0%
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · DH
14
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.325 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)