Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-06-11 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-11

Zach McKinstry

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample1671.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.1
F 15.7
V 15.7
Model 16.4% Market 8.7% Gap +7.4pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.2% Market 69.0% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 21.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.6% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.8%
12 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity83.2
6
Hard-hit%21.9%
4 -20 vs proj
xBA0.256
5
xSLG0.357
5
xwOBA0.264
13 -36 vs proj
BB%10.4%
70 +28 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
21
K%17.8%
76 +20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · 2B
3
Arm Strength96.6 · 2B
97
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
80
Range Runs3.0 · 2B
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · 2B
52
SB Success Rate33.3% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.346
RegressionNegative · -0.041
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)