Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Zach McKinstry

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs BALKyle Bradish
Sample1789.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.6
F 12.2
V 10.9
Model 13.4% Market 8.7% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.9% Market 68.8% Gap +11.8pp
BetMGM -220 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
12 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity84.0
12
Hard-hit%21.2%
4 -20 vs proj
xBA0.288
19
xSLG0.394
11
xwOBA0.281
25 -30 vs proj
BB%8.8%
53
Bat speed66.8
18
K%16.6%
82 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · 2B
5
Arm Strength96.6 · 2B
97
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
84
Range Runs5.2 · 2B
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · 2B
12
Sprint Speed27.9 · 2B
64
SB Success Rate25.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.346
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherKyle Bradish
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)