Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-17

Zach McKinstry

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski
Sample1840.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.7
F 12.4
V 12.4
Model 11.3% Market 8.7% Gap +2.3pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.5% Market 70.6% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.9% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.8%
10 -26 vs proj
Exit velocity84.6
14
Hard-hit%22.9%
5 -20 vs proj
xBA0.293
22
xSLG0.398
13
xwOBA0.292
33 -22 vs proj
BB%9.2%
58
Bat speed66.4
14
K%15.4%
86 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
61
Arm Strength96.6 · 2B
97
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs5.8 · 2B
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · RF
10
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
62
SB Success Rate25.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.346
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherCarmen Mlodzinski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)