Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-08-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-22

Zach McKinstry

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample1852.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.2
F 11.3
V 7.9
Model 10.5% Market 8.7% Gap +1.5pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.6% Market 69.7% Gap +12.4pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.2% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.7%
9 -26 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
17
Hard-hit%22.5%
4 -22 vs proj
xBA0.292
20
xSLG0.395
12
xwOBA0.294
36 -19 vs proj
BB%9.7%
64 +19 vs proj
Bat speed66.3
13
K%15.0%
88 +30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · RF
58
Arm Strength96.6 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
95
Range Runs4.9 · RF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · RF
14
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
62
SB Success Rate25.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.1%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1%
32
Correct Decisions68.0%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.346
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)