Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Zach McKinstry

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs MINDean Kremer
Sample1891.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.4
F 11.7
V 9.5
Model 12.9% Market 8.7% Gap +3.9pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.1% Market 70.2% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -235 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
7 -29 vs proj
Exit velocity84.9
18
Hard-hit%21.6%
4 -22 vs proj
xBA0.286
17
xSLG0.385
9
xwOBA0.282
27 -29 vs proj
BB%9.0%
57
Bat speed66.1
13
K%16.3%
84 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.8 · RF
96
Arm Strength96.6 · RF
72
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
94
Range Runs5.7 · RF
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF
23
SB Success Rate40.0% · RF
1
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
62
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
35
Correct Decisions68.0%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.346
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherDean Kremer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)