Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-06-18 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-18

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 21.7% Market 26.0% Gap -4.2pp
BetMGM 285 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.4% Market 69.5% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.6% Market -- Gap +10.7pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.7%
96
Exit velocity93.0
94
Hard-hit%51.2%
92
xBA0.407
97
xSLG0.887
99
xwOBA0.380
95
BB%14.1%
93
Bat speed74.1
95
K%33.7%
4
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.3 · LF
29 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · DH
18
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6%
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
66
Correct Decisions68.8%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.418
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)