Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-06-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Total Bases

Total Bases · Palantir.

Contact quality, base-path distribution, and pricing context without sportsbook-style chrome.

Rows
73
Date
2026-06-18
Lane
Palantir
TOTAL BASES 2026-06-18 · saved artifact ROWS 73 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 1.5 · 2.5
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Total Bases board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap TB proj2+ TBHitsTB mult Best line
01
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 71.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
71.4%Over prob · Palantir 82.8%no-vig -0.31% 2.9119count0.7135prob1.6301proj1.085context FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
02
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray
P 29.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 1.5
70.7%Under prob · Palantir 70.0%no-vig -1.13% 0.9046count0.293prob0.4174proj1.052context DraftKings 225 avg 1 books
03
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 23.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 2.5
3 of 3
76.4%Under prob · Palantir 74.4%no-vig +4.59% 1.6072count0.45prob0.9066proj0.916context DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
04
KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
P 73.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
73.6%Over prob · Palantir 81.7%no-vig -0.33% 2.9911count0.7359prob1.5374proj0.937context FanDuel -165 avg 1 books
05
NYY vs CWSSean Burke
P 68.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
68.8%Over prob · Palantir 80.4%no-vig -0.36% 2.836count0.6878prob1.4909proj1.084context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
06
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 70.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
70.3%Over prob · Palantir 78.9%no-vig -0.40% 2.8398count0.7027prob1.4328proj1.027context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
07
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray
P 66.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
66.9%Over prob · Palantir 79.5%no-vig -0.37% 2.6732count0.6694prob1.4405proj1.052context FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
08
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola
P 65.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.2%Over prob · Palantir 79.8%no-vig -0.44% 2.4788count0.6516prob1.4332proj1.045context FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
09
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 48.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.2%Over prob · Palantir 78.9%no-vig -0.59% 2.9023count0.6902prob1.4147proj1.015context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
10
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 68.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
68.9%Over prob · Palantir 77.4%no-vig -0.38% 2.7723count0.689prob1.3673proj1.085context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
11
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola
P 67.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
67.8%Over prob · Palantir 76.6%no-vig -0.47% 2.9317count0.6784prob1.3461proj1.045context FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
12
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 64.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
64.7%Over prob · Palantir 79.3%no-vig -0.42% 2.4649count0.647prob1.4238proj1.085context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
13
SEA vs BALShane Baz
P 65.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.5%Over prob · Palantir 78.1%no-vig -0.32% 2.5754count0.6546prob1.3744proj1.012context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
14
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp
P 69.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
69.4%Over prob · Palantir 77.6%no-vig -0.43% 2.9066count0.6942prob1.3811proj1.06context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
15
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp
P 65.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.1%Over prob · Palantir 76.0%no-vig -0.48% 2.534count0.6513prob1.2928proj1.06context FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
16
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.3%Over prob · Palantir 74.7%no-vig -0.40% 2.4238count0.6231prob1.2682proj1.015context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
17
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray
P 63.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
63.0%Over prob · Palantir 75.7%no-vig -0.44% 2.4829count0.6299prob1.2943proj1.052context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
18
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp
P 61.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
61.6%Over prob · Palantir 74.7%no-vig -0.46% 2.3723count0.6155prob1.2393proj1.06context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
19
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp
P 62.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.2%Over prob · Palantir 75.7%no-vig -0.46% 2.3741count0.6221prob1.2921proj1.06context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
20
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 51.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
51.5%Over prob · Palantir 76.5%no-vig -0.47% 1.8188count0.5153prob1.3096proj0.958context FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
21
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.1%Over prob · Palantir 72.1%no-vig -0.30% 2.1747count0.5806prob1.1688proj1.045context FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
22
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
57.5%Over prob · Palantir 72.6%no-vig -0.47% 2.137count0.5753prob1.1715proj1.06context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
23
KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
P 62.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.8%Over prob · Palantir 74.7%no-vig -0.36% 2.4442count0.6277prob1.245proj0.937context FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
24
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 65.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.6%Over prob · Palantir 73.7%no-vig -0.54% 2.5549count0.6556prob1.2177proj0.958context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
25
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 57.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
57.1%Over prob · Palantir 70.4%no-vig -0.40% 2.0776count0.5707prob1.1052proj1.085context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
26
KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
P 52.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
52.1%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.29% 1.7943count0.5211prob1.075proj0.937context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
27
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.1%Over prob · Palantir 71.8%no-vig -0.46% 2.1966count0.581prob1.1568proj1.001context FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
28
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 61.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
61.5%Over prob · Palantir 70.9%no-vig -0.35% 2.3521count0.6145prob1.1237proj1.015context FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
29
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 56.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
56.3%Over prob · Palantir 71.8%no-vig -0.50% 2.0699count0.5628prob1.1453proj1.085context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
30
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 62.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
62.4%Over prob · Palantir 71.3%no-vig -0.34% 2.3474count0.6241prob1.1487proj0.958context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
31
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray
P 54.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
54.1%Over prob · Palantir 69.0%no-vig -0.40% 1.9033count0.5407prob1.0671proj1.052context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
32
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter
P 48.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.5%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.35% 1.7672count0.485prob1.086proj1.001context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
33
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 66.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
66.8%Over prob · Palantir 73.3%no-vig -0.52% 2.6728count0.6679prob1.2136proj1.027context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
34
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter
P 67.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
67.7%Over prob · Palantir 72.5%no-vig -0.43% 2.6031count0.6772prob1.167proj1.001context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
35
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 65.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
65.4%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.38% 2.7065count0.6536prob1.1069proj1.085context FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
36
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 60.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
60.1%Over prob · Palantir 70.0%no-vig -0.59% 2.2934count0.6012prob1.1099proj0.958context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
37
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 52.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
52.2%Over prob · Palantir 67.9%no-vig -0.35% 1.879count0.5221prob1.0259proj1.015context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
38
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 55.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
55.4%Over prob · Palantir 71.7%no-vig -0.40% 2.034count0.5537prob1.1441proj1.027context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
39
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
59.5%Over prob · Palantir 72.1%no-vig -0.59% 2.2309count0.595prob1.1755proj1.015context FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
40
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 41.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
41.7%Over prob · Palantir 68.1%no-vig -0.66% 1.5106count0.4167prob1.0576proj0.916context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
41
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola
P 37.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
37.9%Over prob · Palantir 72.5%no-vig -0.59% 2.3315count0.5983prob1.1693proj1.045context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
42
ATL vs SFLanden Roupp
P 57.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
57.0%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.48% 2.0802count0.57prob1.0306proj1.06context FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
43
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 45.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
45.0%Over prob · Palantir 63.0%no-vig -0.26% 1.5506count0.45prob0.9123proj1.015context FanDuel 185 avg 1 books
44
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter
P 48.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.6%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.50% 1.7564count0.4862prob1.0101proj1.001context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
45
KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
P 44.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
44.5%Over prob · Palantir 65.8%no-vig -0.71% 1.5768count0.4451prob0.9724proj0.937context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
46
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 60.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
60.3%Over prob · Palantir 69.9%no-vig -0.47% 2.2685count0.6029prob1.1proj1.027context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
47
SEA vs BALShane Baz
P 43.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
43.6%Over prob · Palantir 71.3%no-vig -0.81% 2.7329count0.6609prob1.1478proj1.012context FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
48
SEA vs BALShane Baz
P 53.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.1%Over prob · Palantir 67.9%no-vig -0.46% 1.9659count0.5309prob1.0279proj1.012context FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
49
NYY vs CWSSean Burke
P 53.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.2%Over prob · Palantir 69.5%no-vig -0.58% 1.9247count0.5321prob1.0697proj1.084context FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
50
STL vs KCNoah Cameron
P 45.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
45.2%Over prob · Palantir 64.5%no-vig -0.56% 1.5963count0.452prob0.9232proj0.944context FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
51
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray
P 23.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
23.3%Over prob · Palantir 65.6%no-vig +4.88% 1.6009count0.4519prob0.9798proj1.052context DraftKings 310 avg 1 books
52
STL vs KCNoah Cameron
P 42.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
42.9%Over prob · Palantir 63.7%no-vig -0.30% 1.5087count0.4289prob0.9268proj0.944context FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
53
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter
P 51.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
51.9%Over prob · Palantir 66.2%no-vig -0.45% 1.9107count0.5194prob0.9891proj1.001context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
54
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 24.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
24.0%Over prob · Palantir 64.5%no-vig +4.19% 1.635count0.4735prob0.9411proj1.027context FanDuel 550 avg 1 books
55
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 46.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
46.2%Over prob · Palantir 65.1%no-vig -0.60% 1.5623count0.4621prob0.9479proj0.958context FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
56
NYY vs CWSSean Burke
P 58.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
58.2%Over prob · Palantir 67.4%no-vig -0.66% 2.2016count0.5816prob1.0241proj1.084context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
57
MIN vs TEXJack Leiter
P 51.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
51.9%Over prob · Palantir 66.8%no-vig -0.42% 1.8686count0.5195prob0.9994proj1.001context FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
58
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 56.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
56.7%Over prob · Palantir 63.2%no-vig -0.82% 2.0643count0.5668prob0.9132proj0.916context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
59
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 53.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
53.0%Over prob · Palantir 64.5%no-vig -0.69% 1.9291count0.5298prob0.9539proj1.015context FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
60
BAL vs SEABryan Woo
P 50.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
50.8%Over prob · Palantir 60.7%no-vig -0.24% 1.7906count0.5082prob0.8624proj1.027context FanDuel 195 avg 1 books
61
STL vs KCNoah Cameron
P 43.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
43.5%Over prob · Palantir 61.7%no-vig -0.61% 1.5217count0.4348prob0.8793proj0.944context FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
62
CWS vs NYYRyan Weathers
P 45.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
45.2%Over prob · Palantir 67.9%no-vig -0.66% 1.5878count0.4516prob1.0263proj0.916context FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
63
KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
P 30.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
30.8%Over prob · Palantir 67.9%no-vig -1.04% 1.9687count0.5452prob1.0332proj0.937context FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
64
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola
P 26.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
26.4%Over prob · Palantir 65.1%no-vig -0.70% 1.7436count0.4692prob0.9549proj1.045context FanDuel 280 avg 1 books
65
SEA vs BALShane Baz
P 28.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
28.0%Over prob · Palantir 62.8%no-vig -0.49% 1.8397count0.5189prob0.9004proj1.012context FanDuel 300 avg 1 books
66
SEA vs BALShane Baz
P 36.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
36.9%Over prob · Palantir 59.1%no-vig -0.64% 1.2435count0.3688prob0.8007proj1.012context FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
67
KC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
P 22.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
22.4%Over prob · Palantir 63.0%no-vig -0.60% 1.5608count0.4591prob0.9002proj0.937context FanDuel 410 avg 1 books
68
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola
P 48.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
48.3%Over prob · Palantir 61.4%no-vig -0.54% 1.7233count0.4826prob0.8542proj1.045context FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
69
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 38.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
38.2%Over prob · Palantir 53.2%no-vig -0.62% 1.2355count0.3819prob0.675proj1.085context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
70
STL vs KCNoah Cameron
P 42.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
42.4%Over prob · Palantir 61.4%no-vig -1.06% 1.5083count0.4242prob0.8627proj0.944context FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
71
SF vs ATLMartín Pérez
P 25.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 3
25.2%Over prob · Palantir 63.0%no-vig -1.19% 1.6974count0.4881prob0.8958proj0.958context FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
72
PHI vs NYMSean Manaea
P 38.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
38.0%Over prob · Palantir 59.9%no-vig -0.82% 1.3365count0.3805prob0.8158proj1.085context FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
73
TEX vs MINJoe Ryan
P 41.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 0.5
1 of 2
41.4%Over prob · Palantir 52.8%no-vig -1.14% 1.3871count0.4141prob0.6849proj1.015context FanDuel 135 avg 1 books