Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-05-19 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-19

Lane Thomas

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupKC vs BOSRanger Suarez
Sample2104.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 3.3
F 11.1
V 14.0
Model 14.6% Market 13.4% Gap +0.7pp
DraftKings 620 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 28.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.0% Market 28.7% Gap +0.2pp
FanDuel 245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
25 -15 vs proj
Exit velocity85.4
16
Hard-hit%36.6%
32
xBA0.285
19
xSLG0.400
17
xwOBA0.307
45
BB%18.9%
99 +66 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
K%22.1%
48 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · CF
94
Arm Strength94.8 · CF
69
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
19
Range Runs-1.4 · CF
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · CF
62
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
90
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.4%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.240 to 0.356
RegressionNegative · -0.053
Opposing pitcherRanger Suarez
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)