Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Lane Thomas

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupKC vs SFTyler Mahle
Sample2269.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.5
F 9.3
V 15.6
Model 14.7% Market 12.6% Gap +1.7pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 23.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.3% Market 43.8% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.5% Market -- Gap +13.4pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48
Exit velocity89.5
67
Hard-hit%42.7%
65
xBA0.347
75
xSLG0.540
61
xwOBA0.337
75 +30 vs proj
BB%13.3%
89 +52 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
61
K%22.3%
51 +23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.6 · CF
98
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
76
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs-4.2 · CF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.0 · CF
88
Bolts12.0 · CF
72
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.240 to 0.356
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)