Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample4082.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 17.4
Model 22.1% Market 29.3% Gap +4.9pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 80.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.4% Market 86.9% Gap +18.8pp
FanDuel -120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.2% Market -- Gap +5.0pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.7%
98
Exit velocity93.5
97
Hard-hit%53.1%
96
xBA0.402
96
xSLG0.795
98
xwOBA0.413
99
BB%14.2%
93
Bat speed73.1
90
K%23.0%
46
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
85
K%29.4%
91
Whiff%29.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions67.8%
67
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)