Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-05-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-21

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample3291.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 15.5
V 17.4
Model 18.1% Market 18.8% Gap -1.3pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
79
Exit velocity89.5
60
Hard-hit%41.9%
56 -32 vs proj
xBA0.351
74
xSLG0.646
83
xwOBA0.383
90
BB%14.5%
92
Bat speed72.8
88
K%20.5%
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · RF
70
Arm Strength97.3 · RF
85
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
19
Range Runs-0.6 · RF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · RF
72
SB Success Rate87.5% · RF
71
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
37
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.4%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9%
89
Correct Decisions73.8%
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
95

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.016
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)