Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-08-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-04

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 15.6
Model 19.2% Market 18.8% Gap -0.2pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.8% Market 82.8% Gap +15.1pp
BetMGM -480 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
89
Exit velocity90.5
82
Hard-hit%45.8%
80
xBA0.348
78
xSLG0.675
92
xwOBA0.376
96
BB%14.6%
96
Bat speed73.3
91
K%23.0%
45
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · RF
61
Arm Strength97.8 · RF
87
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
3
Range Runs-4.2 · RF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · RF
44
Bolts1.0 · RF
15
SB Success Rate76.5% · RF
36
Sprint Speed27.3 · RF
48
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0%
87
Correct Decisions71.0%
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
89

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)