Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TBFreddy Peralta
Sample3500.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 16.7
Model 18.7% Market 18.8% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.0% Market 82.0% Gap +17.0pp
BetMGM -455 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
85
Exit velocity90.7
85
Hard-hit%46.3%
85
xBA0.350
82
xSLG0.658
91
xwOBA0.363
95
BB%12.2%
88
Bat speed73.3
91
K%23.0%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.8 · RF
88
Arm Strength100.1 · RF
92
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · RF
3
Range Runs-6.0 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · RF
45
Bolts1.0 · RF
11
SB Success Rate78.3% · RF
43
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4%
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7%
93
Correct Decisions70.3%
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.340 to 0.424
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)