Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs TORMax Scherzer
Sample1944.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 14.9
V 11.7
Model 18.2% Market 9.8% Gap +8.0pp
DraftKings 880 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.2% Market 70.2% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -235 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.5% Market -- Gap +13.7pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
35
Exit velocity88.2
49
Hard-hit%38.6%
48 +32 vs proj
xBA0.268
11
xSLG0.414
18
xwOBA0.275
19 -18 vs proj
BB%3.6%
7
Bat speed65.8
10
K%10.9%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.1 · C
49
Catcher Throwing-0.7 · C
33
Framing Runs2.4 · C
72
Pop Time2.0 · C
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.4 · C
2
Sprint Speed25.2 · C
7
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.368 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.069
Opposing pitcherMax Scherzer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)