Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs SFTyler Mahle
Sample2585.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.1
F 12.2
V 12.7
Model 14.5% Market 12.6% Gap +1.5pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.3% Market 80.2% Gap +15.2pp
BetMGM -405 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity90.3
80
Hard-hit%43.6%
71 -17 vs proj
xBA0.319
47
xSLG0.519
53
xwOBA0.334
74
BB%8.4%
49 -24 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
73
K%14.0%
90 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.2 · C
11
Catcher Throwing3.5 · C
100
Framing Runs-4.6 · C
5
Pop Time1.9 · C
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.5 · C
5
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
13
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)