Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs CINAndrew Abbott
Sample2728.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 12.0
Model 18.7% Market 13.0% Gap +5.2pp
DraftKings 645 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.6% Market 81.8% Gap +16.9pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.5% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
76
Exit velocity90.6
85
Hard-hit%45.0%
79
xBA0.312
42
xSLG0.526
58
xwOBA0.333
79
BB%9.2%
59
Bat speed71.5
76
K%14.9%
89 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
14
Catcher Throwing2.8 · C
94
Framing Runs-4.8 · C
9
Pop Time1.9 · C
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.7 · C
8
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
17
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6%
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5%
88
Correct Decisions69.6%
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.366 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherAndrew Abbott
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)