Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Daulton Varsho

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs NYMFreddy Peralta
Sample2394.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.5
F 17.2
V 19.0
Model 22.2% Market 18.1% Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 430 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.6% Market 73.7% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.3% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
56
Exit velocity85.7
24
Hard-hit%39.3%
49
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.485
41
xwOBA0.303
47
BB%8.9%
54 +16 vs proj
Bat speed71.0
70
K%21.0%
59 +38 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · CF
45
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
21
Outs Above Avg3.0 · CF
92
Range Runs2.1 · CF
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · CF
34
Sprint Speed27.2 · CF
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.3%
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9%
78
Correct Decisions65.1%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.343
RegressionNegative · -0.068
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)