Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Daulton Varsho

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs BALChris Bassitt
Sample2606.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.6
F 11.7
V 14.5
Model 15.6% Market 17.5% Gap -1.9pp
BetMGM 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.6% Market 71.0% Gap +12.9pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.3% Market -- Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56
Exit velocity86.1
31
Hard-hit%37.1%
44
xBA0.299
27
xSLG0.461
36
xwOBA0.290
36
BB%7.9%
43
Bat speed71.0
71
K%19.7%
68 +44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.1 · CF
12
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
19
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs6.2 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
51
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
94
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
49
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.7%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7%
75
Correct Decisions64.9%
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.343
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherChris Bassitt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)