Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-02 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-02

Lars Nootbaar

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Neutral
MatchupSTL vs ATL--
Sample1757.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +42.4pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
85
Exit velocity93.2
95
Hard-hit%58.2%
99 +20 vs proj
xBA0.385
94
xSLG0.697
93
xwOBA0.377
94
BB%13.6%
91
Bat speed71.1
72
K%22.7%
48 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength95.4 · LF
69
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs0.8 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
50
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.376
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)