Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Lars Nootbaar

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs CIN--
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +40.4pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%49.3%
92
xBA0.311
38
xSLG0.529
60
xwOBA0.326
74
BB%14.2%
95
Bat speed70.6
65
K%20.8%
60
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · LF
64
Arm Strength95.4 · LF
66
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.7 · LF
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
52
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.0%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.023
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)