Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-14 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-14

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.8
F 12.9
V 10.7
Model 8.1% Market 7.7% Gap +0.1pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.6% Market 84.9% Gap +15.5pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 40.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 40.5% Market -- Gap +10.2pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
6
Exit velocity85.9
27
Hard-hit%28.5%
13
xBA0.329
61
xSLG0.415
19
xwOBA0.323
69
BB%7.6%
38 +17 vs proj
Bat speed66.8
18
K%9.1%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
51
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
29
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 2B
95
Range Runs5.4 · 2B
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.5 · 2B
96
SB Success Rate94.1% · 2B
87
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)