Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-24

Austin Riley

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs BALTrevor Rogers
Sample3514.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 11.4
V 14.8
Model 17.3% Market 17.1% Gap -0.4pp
DraftKings 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.9% Market 81.0% Gap +15.5pp
BetMGM -425 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
82
Exit velocity90.7
82
Hard-hit%44.3%
74 -16 vs proj
xBA0.313
39
xSLG0.580
71
xwOBA0.301
44 -37 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
Bat speed74.0
94
K%28.4%
20 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
29
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
55
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
29
Range Runs-1.0 · 3B
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · 3B
75
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
93
Sprint Speed27.8 · 3B
61
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)