Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-28

Trevor Larnach

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample1737.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 13.6
V 9.2
Model 15.9% Market 12.0% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.8% Market 69.7% Gap +12.1pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.6% Market -- Gap +17.7pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
63
Exit velocity86.8
33
Hard-hit%34.1%
28 -44 vs proj
xBA0.332
63
xSLG0.512
50
xwOBA0.340
80
BB%11.1%
77 +17 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
52
K%17.2%
80 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · LF
83
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
34
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
4
Range Runs-3.9 · LF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
50
Sprint Speed26.8 · LF
34
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)