Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-13 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-13

Trevor Larnach

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample1779.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 9.6
Model 16.2% Market 12.0% Gap +3.7pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.8% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.5% Market -- Gap +9.5pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64
Exit velocity87.2
39
Hard-hit%36.0%
36
xBA0.326
58
xSLG0.510
52
xwOBA0.335
79
BB%11.2%
80
Bat speed70.0
56
K%17.8%
77
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · LF
81
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
32
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
4
Range Runs-3.5 · LF
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
48
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
31
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9%
26
Correct Decisions64.3%
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)