Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Cal Raleigh

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IL10 · 3 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs TEXKumar Rocker
Sample2437.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.1
F 12.2
V 13.8
Model 23.5% Market 26.3% Gap -2.8pp
BetMGM 280 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.5% Market 74.4% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.3% Market -- Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
70 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity88.2
51
Hard-hit%33.3%
26 -61 vs proj
xBA0.279
14
xSLG0.551
64
xwOBA0.285
27 -61 vs proj
BB%11.6%
81
Bat speed72.4
83
K%31.9%
9 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.5 · C
99
Catcher Throwing-1.0 · C
24
Framing Runs-1.9 · C
26
Pop Time2.0 · C
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
13
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
84
Correct Decisions65.2%
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.394
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcherKumar Rocker
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)