Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs CLESlade Cecconi
Sample2004.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 12.9
Model 17.3% Market 12.3% Gap +4.6pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.5% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.6% Market -- Gap +11.8pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
84 +19 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%47.6%
86
xBA0.355
81
xSLG0.645
87
xwOBA0.343
82 +27 vs proj
BB%9.6%
64
Bat speed69.2
42
K%26.2%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.6 · C
100
Catcher Throwing-0.9 · C
26
Framing Runs-9.8 · C
1
Pop Time2.0 · C
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
40
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions74.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.441
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherSlade Cecconi
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)