Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-08 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-08

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample618.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.7
F 12.8
V 11.7
Model 7.5% Market 7.7% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 48.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.1% Market 76.2% Gap +10.7pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.2% Market -- Gap +8.6pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
4
Exit velocity81.4
3
Hard-hit%26.1%
8 -21 vs proj
xBA0.318
47
xSLG0.396
11
xwOBA0.281
25
BB%5.3%
15
Bat speed64.1
4
K%19.1%
69 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
37
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
10
Range Runs0.2 · CF
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · CF
70
Bolts26.0 · CF
86
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
32
Sprint Speed29.4 · CF
95
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.084
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)