Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs NYYWill Warren
Sample651.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.4
F 9.3
V 13.7
Model 9.1% Market 7.7% Gap +1.1pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 24.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.3% Market 46.8% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.1% Market -- Gap +11.4pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
4
Exit velocity82.5
5
Hard-hit%27.1%
10 -19 vs proj
xBA0.317
44
xSLG0.404
13
xwOBA0.286
30
BB%4.9%
14
Bat speed64.3
4
K%18.2%
73
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · CF
54
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs0.5 · CF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
70
Bolts28.0 · CF
88
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
28
Sprint Speed29.3 · CF
94
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.077
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)