Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample669.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 6.7
F 7.4
V 12.4
Model 7.6% Market 7.7% Gap -0.4pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.2% Market 75.3% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.7% Market -- Gap +8.2pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.0%
4
Exit velocity82.5
5
Hard-hit%25.4%
7 -22 vs proj
xBA0.317
44
xSLG0.401
13
xwOBA0.285
27
BB%4.7%
13
Bat speed64.6
5
K%17.9%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · CF
71
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
90
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs0.8 · CF
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · CF
75
Bolts30.0 · CF
90
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
26
Sprint Speed29.4 · CF
94
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.074
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)