Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Ian Happ

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample4217.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 15.5
V 14.4
Model 21.1% Market 14.8% Gap +5.7pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.5% Market 76.5% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
75
Exit velocity89.3
64
Hard-hit%42.0%
63
xBA0.319
47
xSLG0.638
86
xwOBA0.319
63 -18 vs proj
BB%13.7%
93
Bat speed70.5
65
K%30.4%
14 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.4 · LF
98
Arm Strength90.1 · LF
23
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
47
Range Runs0.1 · LF
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · LF
31
Sprint Speed27.8 · LF
61
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9%
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
46
Correct Decisions68.8%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.326 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.370 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.390
RegressionNegative · -0.045
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)