Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Ty France

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSD vs CHCColin Rea
Sample3129.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.8
F 15.7
V 12.6
Model 18.1% Market 9.4% Gap +8.3pp
DraftKings 925 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.1% Market 76.2% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -320 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.0% Market -- Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
85 +37 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
81
Hard-hit%45.4%
76 +19 vs proj
xBA0.333
62
xSLG0.610
78
xwOBA0.327
67
BB%5.7%
18
Bat speed70.0
54
K%22.9%
47 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.2 · 1B
2
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 1B
97
Range Runs5.1 · 1B
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.9 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.077
Opposing pitcherColin Rea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)